Service Plays Wednesday 09/23/09

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WNBA LONG SHEET


Wednesday, September 23

INDIANA (24 - 12) at DETROIT (20 - 16) - 9/23/2009, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 66-98 ATS (-41.8 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
INDIANA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 73-102 ATS (-39.2 Units) in road games since 1997.
INDIANA is 41-65 ATS (-30.5 Units) in road games after a division game since 1997.
INDIANA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1997.
INDIANA is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 9-8 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 10-7 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (25 - 12) at LOS ANGELES (20 - 17) - 9/23/2009, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 6-5 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 7-4 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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WNBA DUNKEL

Indiana at Detroit

The Shock look to build on their 5-1-1 ATS record in their last 7 home games. Detroit is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Detroit favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 601-602: Indiana at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 110.517; Detroit 116.212
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 5 1/2; 144
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 147
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1 1/2); Under

Game 603-604: Phoenix at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 116.885; Los Angeles 117.183
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 183 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 3; 177
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3); Over
 
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MLB DUNKEL


Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
The Brewers look to build on their 8-3 record in their last 11 games as a favorite. Milwaukee is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.953; Pittsburgh (Hart) 13.430
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-130); Over

Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 16.756; Washington (Detwiler) 13.022
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-200); Under

Game 955-956: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.934; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 13.709
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.853; Florida (VandenHurk) 14.896
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-165); Over

Game 959-960: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 15.344; Milwaukee (Narveson) 16.068
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); Under

Game 961-962: St. Louis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Smoltz) 14.352; Houston (Norris) 14.537
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Under

Game 963-964: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stauffer) 16.005; Colorado (Marquis) 15.026
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-215); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+195); Over

Game 965-966: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 14.820; Arizona (Mulvey) 14.487
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Under

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.600; LA Angels (Kazmir) 15.910
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Over

Game 969-970: Baltimore at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.715; Toronto (Richmond) 13.813
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+105); Over

Game 971-972: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 13.986; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.673
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+120); Under

Game 973-974: Seattle at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Morrow) 15.765; Tampa Bay (Davis) 16.790
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Under

Game 975-976: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Duensing) 15.107; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.793
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-110); Under

Game 977-978: Boston at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 16.043; Kansas City (Hochevar) 16.968
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-215); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+195); Over

Game 979-980: Texas at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Hunter) 14.448; Oakland (Mortensen) 16.636
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120); Under
 
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

Philadelphia (88-62) at Florida (81-71)

The Phillies look to move another step closer to capturing their third consecutive N.L. East title while pushing the Marlins closer to elimination when these division rivals wrap up a three-game, two-day series at Land Shark Stadium. Philadelphia will send ace Cole Hamels (2-2, 4.24) to the hill opposite Rick VandenHurk (10-9, 4.07).

These teams split a doubleheader on Tuesday, with the Phillies cruising 9-3 in the opener then losing 3-0 in the finale. Philadelphia leads the N.L. East by 7 ½ games over the Braves and 8½ over the Marlins, and its magic number to clinch the division is down to five. The defending world champs have won 11 of their last 15 overall, including eight of the last 10, all against division rivals. They’re 5-3 on the road during this stretch, and Philadelphia is on additional upticks of 24-10 in divisional play, 12-5 versus winning teams, 6-1 on Wednesday and 7-2 against right-handed starters.

Florida has lost seven of its last 12 at home, five of seven against lefty starters and six of eight at home against southpaws, but is otherwise on positive runs of 9-4 against N.L. East rivals and 4-0 on Wednesday.

By winning the nightcap of last night’s doubleheader, the Marlins ended Philadelphia’s nine-game winning streak at Land Shark Stadium. Still, the road team has dominated this rivalry in 2009, winning 12 of the first 14 meetings.

Hamels is coming off back-to-back 4-2 home wins over the Mets (one run allowed in 6 2/3 innings) and Nationals (one run allowed in eight innings). Philly is 4-1 in Hamels’ last five trips to the mound, with the lefty posting a 1.43 ERA during this stretch. However, the Phillies have lost four of Hamels’ last five starts on the road, where the San Diego native is just 3-6 this year with a 4.98 ERA in 14 outings.

Hamels has struggled in his young career against the Marlins, going 2-5 with a 4.19 ERA in 10 starts. Also, Philly is 1-6 in his last seven starts against the Fish and 1-4 in his five career outings in South Beach.

VandenHurk has a 2.40 ERA in his last three trips to the hill (four earned runs allowed in 15 innings), though he doesn’t have anything to show for it, getting three no-decisions. However, the Marlins won all three games, beating Atlanta 8-7 at home while scoring road wins at the Mets (4-2) and Reds (4-3). In four home starts, the 6-foot-5 right-hander is 1-1 with a 4.98 ERA. VandenHurk is also 0-2 with a bloated 12.79 ERA in two career starts against the Phillies, losing 11-1 and 9-1 in Philadelphia in 2007.

The Phillies have stayed under the total in Hamels’ last seven starts overall, his last four on the road and his last four against the N.L. East, and the under is 13-3-1 in his last 17 when starting the third game of a series. Conversely, the over is 5-2 in VandenHurk’s last seven starts overall and 4-0 in his last four at home.

As a team Philadelphia is on “under” runs of 7-3 overall (all against the N.L. East), 11-4 against winning teams, 25-9 in the third game of a series and 17-8 on Wednesday, however the over is 5-2 in the Phillies’ last seven as a visitor. Meanwhile, the under is 6-1-1 in Florida’ s last eight games overall, but otherwise the over for the Marlins is on streaks of 20-8 at home, 6-2 on Wednesday and 8-4 versus lefty starters.

Finally, the over is 55-26-3 in the last 84 Phillies-Marlins meetings in Miami.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA


N.Y. Yankees (96-56) at L.A. Angels (90-61)

The Yankees conclude a six-game West Coast road trip and cap their season series against the Angels with an afternoon affair in Anaheim, as New York’s A.J. Burnett (11-9, 4.22 ERA) is set to oppose Los Angeles lefty Scott Kazmir (9-8, 5.08).

After losing Monday’s opener to the Angels 5-2, the Yankees squandered a 5-0 lead last night, but got a run in the top of the ninth and held on for a 6-5 victory, becoming the first team in baseball to clinch a playoff berth. New York is just 2-3 on the road trip and 5-6 in its last 11 overall. However, Joe Girardi’s squad remains on impressive streaks of 58-24 overall, 17-8 on the road, 38-17 versus southpaw starters, 7-2 on the road against lefties, 41-13 on Wednesday and 36-16 against teams with a winning record.

Los Angeles is still 4-2 in its last six games, and Mike Scioscia’s club is on additional surges of 7-2 at home, 14-7 against the A.L. East and 41-14 in the third game of a series. The Angels also hold a slim 5-4 lead in the season series with New York, and the home team is 7-2 in the nine meetings this year and 14-3 in the last 17 clashes. The Yanks have won just twice in their last seven games at Angel Stadium.

Burnett pitched well at Seattle on Friday, allowing a run on seven hits in seven innings, but closer Mariano Rivera blew a 2-1, ninth-inning lead and the Yankees fell 3-2, dropping to 2-5 in Burnett’s last seven starts. They’re also 1-4 in his last five road efforts, but 4-0 in his last four Wednesday outings. Despite the strong performance at Seattle, Burnett is just 6-6 with a 4.83 ERA on the highway this season.

Burnett faced the Angels on April 30 in the Bronx and yielded four runs on eight hits in seven innings, but the Yankees prevailed, 7-4. He’s 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA in five lifetime starts versus the Halos.

Kazmir has been brilliant since getting dealt to the Angels last month, allowing a total of five runs (four earned) in four starts, including pitching six shutout innings in Friday’s 2-0 victory in Texas, his first win in an L.A. uniform. Going back to his time with Tampa Bay, Kazmir has registered seven consecutive quality starts, allowing 11 total earned runs in 45 innings (2.20 ERA).

The Angels have posted a pair of 3-2 victories in Kazmir’s two home starts, with the lefty allowing a combined three runs on 10 hits in 13 innings (2.08 ERA). Also, he’s shined against the Yankees in his career, going 6-4 with a 2.53 ERA in 14 appearances (13 starts), including 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA in two starts this year.

With Burnett on the bump, New York is on “under” runs of 16-7-2 overall, 3-1-1 against the A.L. East and 4-0-1 on Wednesday. Also, all four of Kazmir’s starts with the Angels have stayed low, and the under is 6-0 in his last six outings going back to his time with the Rays.

The Yankees are on “under” rolls of 4-2 overall, 5-2 against the A.L. West, 3-0-1 against lefty starters and 8-3 on Wednesday, but the over is still 10-5 in their last 15 road games. Meanwhile, L.A. carries nothing but “under” trends, including 20-6-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home and 16-6-1 versus right-handed starters.

Conversely, the over is 22-9 in the last 31 Yankees-Angels battles overall, with 14 of the last 18 in Anaheim topping the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
 
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Mighty quinn

Mighty hit with the Reds Tuesday night.

Today it's the Yankees. The surplus is 1,170 sirignanos
 
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Hondo

Hondo, who bagged a pair Monday night, saw his comeback derailed last night when the Red Sawx were flushed by the Royals to raise the dirty digits to 1,465 lemons.

Today, he'll be in a crusty mood if the Pie Guy doesn't get it done -- 10 units on the Yankees to cream Kazmir.
 
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National Sports Service:

5* Atlanta -140 (ML)
3* Milwaukee -130 (ML)
3* Detroit -130 (ML)
3* San Fran -120 (ML)
 
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Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR WEDNESDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )


San Diego (Stauffer)

COLORADO (MARQUIS) -205 (1)


Yankees (Burnett)

ANGELS (KAZMIR) -105 (2)


BOSTON (BECKETT) -190 (3)

Kansas City (Hochevar)


Run Totals

San Diego / Colorado UNDER 9 ½

Yankees / Angels UNDER 9 ½

St. Louis / Houston UNDER 9

Cubs / Milwaukee OVER 9 ½
 

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Randall The Handle






September 23, 2009 2:45pm EST
Italy Serie A
PALERMO +1.91 over Roma PINNACLE
Palermo is a completely different team when playing at home, as they will be in this intriguing affair. For whatever reason, Palermo is one of the best teams in Italy when they play in Palermo in front their home crowd. They have a very balanced attack and can truly score on any team, especially a team that has severe trouble keeping the ball out of its net, as does their opposition. Since the coaching change, Roma has been playing better as a unit, as they have won their last two league games, however, we cannot ignore the fact that they have allowed eight goals against in four matches in Italy’s Serie A. Playing in Palermo doesn’t make things any easier, as Palermo’s unique attack should score enough goals to get a win at home. Last season these teams split the season series both winning at home, that trend should continue here. Play: PALERMO +1.91 (Risking 2 units).

September 23, 2009 2:45pm EST
Italy Serie A
AC Milan +1.38 over UDINESE PINNACLE
Since the drubbing at the hands of city rival Inter Milan, AC Milan have been in fine form going four matches overall without a defeat. They looked awfully impressive in their opening Champions League fixture winning convincingly in France against a very good Marseille squad and than followed it up with a 1-0 victory against Bologna. Although still very early, AC Milan seemingly need this victory much more than Udinese if they are to keep pace with the league leaders, as they are already five points out of first. AC Milan cannot afford to drop any points here against a mid table opponent in Udinese. Udinese will not roll over in this one as they have the ability to cause teams problems, however, AC Milan just have too much talent and will find a way to get the victory. This game may be close, but at this price and the obvious difference in talent level, AC Milan is a very good play. Play: AC Milan +1.38 (Risking 2 units).

September 23, 2009 4:00pm EST
Spain La Liga
Valencia +1.46 over GETAFE PINNACLE
Valencia keeps on offering very good value for some reason and until they start losing they should be considered every time. At this price how can we pass on a very talented Valencia side? Sure Getafe is playing at home and sure they are decent, but that is about it. They are just that, decent, not great not even good. Getafe will try to slow the pace of this game down and try to counter attack against Valencia. Valencia has a lethal attacking bunch and score in bunches as well. Last season Valencia had their way playing against Getafe besting them twice making it look rather easy both at home and on the road. I don’t expect Valencia to drop any points in this one and in fact should win rather comfortably in my opinion. Valencia are contenders year after year while Getafe is usually happy to finish somewhere in the middle of the table. The play here is obvious and at really a great price. Play: Valencia +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
 

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Brad Diamond Sports



4* American League Game Of The Week 80% Angles

Play on: 4* Texas (979) over Oakland

Although, the Rangers are on the road, I still like our chances with RHP Hunter of the Rangers to take home the cash. Hunter is 1-0 with a solid 3.65 ERA life time versus the A’s. More important, the youngster is on the rise as a quality American League hurler. Hunter is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA on the road, while holding right-handed hitters to under a .210 BA last four games out. Behind Hunter as a chalk the Rangers are red hot at 7-1, while going 5-1 versus losing baseball teams.
 

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Stephen Nover
Wednesday Winner

60-Dime Angels (Kazmir over Burnett)

THOUGHTS - I have my American League Game of the Year going today. I've waited all season for a combination of right spot, right pitching matchup and right price. It's come all together in this matchup.

My three-game winning streak on paid selections was halted on Tuesday when the Twins-White Sox went over the total. Now it's time to get back to winning with the biggest play of my career!!!


<center>- - - - - - - - - - - -</center>
60-Dime Angels (with Kazmir over Burnett) - Noted Yankee killer Scott Kazmir is pitching well for the Angels these days. Kazmir draws the Yankees today in a great spot.

New York held on to a 5-0 lead to edge the Angels, 6-5, last night. The win clinches the Yankees' 14th playoff berth in 15 years.

This is a day game following a night game. It's also getaway day for the Yankees. They're returning back to New York after being on the West Coast to start their final regular-season homestand beginning with a big Friday game against arch-rival Boston.

Clearly, this is a letdown spot for New York. The Yankees rarely win in Anaheim having dropped 20 of their last 26 games at Angel Stadium. They are very pleased to get a victory. The ramifications of the Yankees clinching, plus playing a day game following a tough night game, probably mean a number of regulars are going to get the day off. This could include Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. Left-handed batters Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui may not start either against southpaw Kazmir.

While the situation certainly is in Los Angeles' favor, the starting pitching matchup has to be right, too. That's also the case. Kazmir has allowed four earned runs in 25 1/3 innings since joining the Angels for an ERA of 1.42. He's off his finest start as an Angel shutting out Texas on the road last Friday going six innings and giving up six hits with no walks and five strikeouts.

Kazmir pitches with great confidence against the Yankees, an opponent he has enjoyed fine success against. Kazmir is 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA versus the Yankees this season. In 14 lifetime appearances against the Yankees, Kazmir has a 2.53 ERA.

The Yankees are going with A.J. Burnett, who pitched well early in the season but has tailed off since. He hasn't pitched two good games in a row in more than a month. In three of his last six starts, Burnett has been tagged for at least six earned runs.

New York has lost five of Burnett's past seven starts. The Yankees also are 1-5 the last six times Burnett has been a road underdog.


Paid and confirmed by brewerfan003, huskers84, peeiempee and myself. GL
 

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SSG half bets paid by me

(MLB) GUARANTEED 9* Best bet of the day – YANKEES v. ANGELS – 3:35pm

September 23, 2009 by SSG


YOU HAVE PURCHASED THIS CONTENT

GUARANTEED to win or your money back!!
<HR>Premium content follows:

Wednesday Sep 23rd
NY v. LA 3:35pm
PICK: Yankees ML +110 (9*) Best bet of the day
 

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6-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Baltimore at Toronto (7 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 23)
Note: This is my A.L. Total of the Year.

Writeup to follow.

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.5 Texas at Oakland (10 p.m., Wednesday, Sept. 23)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #953 L.A. Dodgers (-1.5, -120) over Washington (7 p.m.)

Ferringo
 

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4 Unit Play. Take the Under 9 between the Detrioit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians (Wednesday @ 7:05pm). I actually think Cleveland has a solid chance of winning this game as the dog today. I've mentioned about the 70% and -130 or below line. Basically, when a team is favored by a small amount and the public is on that team to a tune of more than 2/3rds, the dog is expected to do well and consequently, the game goes under. Such is the case today as these two teams hook up today. Masterson is expected to have a quality start coming off one of his toughest outings of the year giving up five runs in in four innings. In fact, he has been solid at home giving up just 2 earned runs over his last 3 starts and 18 innings. His last four contests have consequently gone under as well. Porcello comes off a 0-3 loss to the Twins on the road and has done well against the Indians thus far. He has given up just 3 runs in 15 innings against the Tribe. Given that he comes off the loss to the rival Twins, I expect him to have a bounce-back start similar to Masterson and this game consequently to go under the posted total. The Under is 3-0-1 for the Tigers overall down this playoff stretch and the Under is 5-1 for Porcello's last 6 starts against the AL Central - while the Under is 8-2-2 in the Indians last 12 starts against the AL Central.

Good luck,

IC
 
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Kelso Highrollers Baseball

Wednesday, September 23, 2009
National League Game Of The Week15 UnitsReds {H.Bailey} (-125) over Pirates {K.Hart}
7:05 PM -- PNC Park
National League Game Of The Week 15 Units Cincinnati Reds (70-81) -125 over PITTSBURGH PIRATES (56-93) Pitching for Cincinnati: RH Homer Bailey (5-5, 5.15) Pitching for Pittsburgh: RH Kevin Hart (4-7, 4.71) Starting Time: 7:05 TV: Fox Sports Ohio, Fox Sports Pittsburgh
Partly cloudy with a 50-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from right to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.
 
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WUNDERDOG
Complimentary Pick and Analysis
Game: Baltimore at Toronto (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Toronto -110 (moneyline)
Toronto has beaten Baltimore seven of eight times already here at home this season. The Orioles have packed things in. They've lost 91 games already this season, they are 24-49 on the road, 20-44 in division games and they've lost six in a row. Toronto isn't a whole lot better, but they are better. At home they have a winning record and they should have no trouble outscoring the Orioles tonight. Baltimore is so bad that they own a 21-38 record vs. losing teams including 8-21 vs. teams at .460 or worse! Toronto is 17-8 this season at home at -100 to -125 and I like them to get the win here.
 

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